META Antitrust Trial

A risk I am willing to take.

As of April 14, 2025, Meta has been involved in a trial with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The FTC is attempting to force Meta to divest Instagram and WhatsApp. The trial is expected to continue for several weeks, with testimonies from key figures, including former COO Sheryl Sandberg and Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom.

The FTC’s initial antitrust lawsuit against Meta was dismissed by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg back in June 2021. The judge ruled that the FTC had not provided sufficient evidence to establish that Facebook held a monopoly in the personal social networking market, noting the agency's failure to define the relevant market and to offer metrics to support its claims.

Since then, the FTC has amended their complaint and has been allowed to proceed to trial. The FTC’s case against Meta relies on a very specific and narrow market definition. Given that TikTok, X, and Snapchat exist, Meta clearly does not have a broad monopoly over the entire social media industry. The FTC has created a very narrow definition of Meta’s market, stating that Meta has a monopoly in personal social networking services. An example of the FTC’s argument would be that one doesn’t share pictures of their new baby with their family over X, TikTok, or Snapchat as much as they would over Facebook and Instagram.

Currently on Polymarket, the odds of the FTC winning this lawsuit are only listed at 12%. I am very much in agreement with the betting market. The reality is that families and friends have numerous ways to communicate that aren’t Facebook or Instagram. Meta has also lost business to TikTok, Reels was created as a direct response to TikTok. Pretending that Meta exists in a silo, cut off from other social media companies, just isn’t a compelling argument to me. I am more than comfortable taking on the risk that Meta loses this trial. But everyone has their own risk tolerance.

There isn’t much more to say at this point but if you have stock in Meta and weren’t aware of this, I certainly want to put it on your radar.

My Portfolio:

MCD, MITSY, AFL, META, JPM, MGM, SPG, COF

METC $17 Call 6/20/2025

*Disclaimer*

You can and will lose money in the stock market. You can lose all of your money. I can and will be wrong. I have been wrong in the past. I have lost money in the past. Investing in stocks is risky and should never be considered safe. Invest at your own risk.