Since beginning to reemphasize some of a Peter Lynch approach in my stock picking, I have been focusing heavily on stocks where I think I have a unique understanding that professional investors and the average individual investor don’t have. I have a Master of Science in Clinical Mental Health Counseling, and between that and my bachelor’s degree, I’ve spent seven years in higher education. I believe this gives me an angle on higher education that most individual investors don’t have. The other relevant angle is that I have spent large portions of my life in exclusively progressive areas that are heavy echo chambers, and the same can be said for conservative echo chambers. I am also a therapist who understands the worldview of many different people. This is an angle that Wall Street doesn’t have.
You’re going to hear me heavily criticize the progressive worldview that dominates higher education. It is not meant to alienate anyone or make a political statement. But if you don’t understand the worldview of a conservative, you won’t understand why Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) will remain very profitable for very many years into the future. I want to start with an example of how whacked-out my own profession can be:
This is a debate between Jillian Michaels, a celebrity fitness trainer who is also a health and wellness advocate, and a room full of people who support the Body Positivity Movement. They attempt to prove the claim that obesity isn’t bad for your health, among other things. This is relevant because numerous people debating Jillian are mental health professionals. Medical research overwhelmingly supports the notion that obesity is bad for your health… Yup, those are my colleagues…
Here’s another example of how crazy higher education is:
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/is-it-time-to-liquidate-the-study-of-sociology-6b85ac14?mod=Searchresults&pos=1&page=1
That may or may not be behind a paywall. The American Sociological Association recently stated that it is currently undergoing a renaissance as antiracist, decolonial, feminist, queer and transnational theorizing that led them to more inclusive insights. If that sounds insane to you, you would be correct, because it is. Entire academic fields are getting transformed into political activist groups. If someone cites social science research to you, be aware that it likely is bullshit. Now, what does this have to do with investing?
Well, Donald Trump won the popular vote, and 62% of the country identifies as Christian. These whackos are a small minority group in this country that have somehow taken hold of nearly all universities in the country. Of the roughly 184 million people I just described who have some capacity to lean conservative, where do they go to get a degree? Do they want to go somewhere where their values will be insulted and where they will have professors who will flunk them if they don’t toe the ideological line?
Funny story: During my undergrad, I was taking a class on the rights of Native American tribes, and the professor was Native American. I thought he was being overly dramatic about a specific legal issue and challenged his view in a paper. He flunked me. I had just had a similar problem butting heads with a different professor the quarter before, and this time I didn’t want the fight. So, I started writing what he wanted to hear. I didn’t believe any of it. Not only did I get an A, he nominated me for an award from the Political Science Department that I won! I could not stop laughing. Apparently, I am a world-class bullshitter.
Anyways, enter Grand Canyon University (GCU), a Christian university in Phoenix, Arizona, with a strong online presence. This is what I was building up to: there aren’t many universities with nationwide access that are openly religious. This is one of the few safe havens for people to get an education who don’t want to be treated like they are horrible for believing obesity is bad or that “equity” is just code for discrimination, or dislike the notion that believing in God makes you some kind of terrible homophobe. Grand Canyon University and, by extension, Grand Canyon Education can target this vast number of people in this country whom the mainstream university system demonizes.
It’s not just the universities; it’s also the extremist students who get drawn in. Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking on a university campus. After Hamas slaughtered Jewish civilians, a wave of aggression started at universities toward Jewish students. That was the manifestation of a desire to fight “Islamophobia” firing off at the world’s most bizarre moment.
Then we have this:
To be clear, those are all future lawyers. Mr. Shapiro’s big crime was opposing Joe Biden choosing a Supreme Court nominee purely on racial lines. Biden had openly stated that he was going to select a Black woman. He phrased his objection somewhat poorly, but ultimately his crime was advocating for a merit-based system, and this was what happened when he tried to teach a class. Needless to say, someone with Christian values may feel unwelcome on a mainstream university campus.
Imagine if a student were to advocate a pro-life view in class. Or support immigration enforcement? Maybe a student is opposed to same-sex marriage or the notion that men can become women at will and vice versa. I think we can see how diversity of viewpoint is met in universities across the country.
There is also the noteworthy occurrence of small liberal arts colleges shutting down left and right. If you think about it, the university system that is hostile to Christians and conservatives is fighting over the same 40% of the country that doesn’t fit this bill. Naturally, there will be attrition, all of which is happening while Grand Canyon University is growing in size.
The crisis is also spreading beyond small liberal arts colleges and is hitting Syracuse University as well.
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/syracuse-student-application-enrollment-crisis-budget-ff142896?st=VtU1Hj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Again, Trump won the popular vote, and some 60% of the country identifies as Christian, all of whom have money, by the way. Where do these approximately 200 million people go if they want a college education? The answer is places like Grand Canyon University. There is a massive demographic to appeal to, and the dying colleges around the country aren’t even bothering to fight for it.
Now, let’s get into Grand Canyon Education, which is distinct from Grand Canyon University.
It’s been easy to use Grand Canyon University as shorthand, but Grand Canyon University is independent of Grand Canyon Education. Although, as the similar names would imply, they have a very cozy relationship. Originally, they were one organization prior to Grand Canyon University becoming a more traditional university.
They are still very closely connected commercially, though. In July 2026, GCU and GCE signed an amended Master Services Agreement running initially through June 30, 2041. Under it, GCE continues providing technology, counseling, marketing, financial-aid processing, and other services to GCU, generally receiving 60% of GCU’s tuition and academic-related fees as its service fee.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1434588/000110465926088674/lope-20260630xex10d2.htm
The biggest requirement for GCE to grow revenue is for Grand Canyon University to keep growing, which it is. Its 10-Q in March 2026 showed about 7% enrollment growth YoY. Meanwhile, all these other traditional universities are on the ropes getting punched in the face.
It’s probably shining through that I intensely dislike higher education. I have a problem with anything that breeds narcissism and elitism. So, I find it endlessly amusing when the for-profit universities, which are by their very nature anti-elitist, start eating the lunch of the snobs. That being said, Grand Canyon University isn’t for-profit, but that is where its roots are.
Well, I should be careful when I say that, since Grand Canyon University was founded in the late 1940s. It was in 2004 that it was struggling financially, went for-profit, attracted outside investment, and leaned heavily into online education. It turned the ship around and then returned to its life as a “normal” university.
Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) has been publicly traded since November 2008.
LOPE vs. S&P 500 last five years:
Last three years:
TTM:
Currently, given the prolonged bubble, I give any stock that matches the index some slack, particularly if it has nothing to do with tech. To perform on par, over a five year period, with the AI cocaine frenzy on Wall Street while being an education company is quite impressive.
More charts:
Their overall amount of debt is very low. You can see that their total debt is similar to their free cash flow for one year. Revenue continues to rise at a healthy rate. The ratio of free cash flow to cash from operations is also quite nice. LOPE’s buybacks are also going along smoothly. The financial picture here is nice and boring, which is the way that I like it. I find that boring often brings money with it. If you want more detail, feel free to read the 10-K. I consider it a must before investing in a stock, in general.
To summarize all of that, college campuses are full of nutbags that most universities seek to coddle. These universities are fighting over the same small piece of a larger pie. Many universities that have turned sharply left are experiencing low attendance rates and financial strain. Meanwhile, the very much normal Grand Canyon University, which is an easy fit for a huge portion of the country, Christians, continues to grow in size and expand. Grand Canyon Education is closely tied to Grand Canyon University through the number of services it provides the university and the decades-long contract they have in place for those services. Financial strength, a moat, and steady buybacks, what’s not to like?
That being said… I don’t hold this stock anymore. I had an insight that made me sell my Macy’s stock for Lockheed Martin and this stock for Northrop Grumman. Still, LOPE is still a quality opportunity. At this point in the game, I don’t find myself picking losers often. I do find myself buying things that are less optimal than something else I found.
I plan on writing about Lockheed Martin next and then Northrop Grumman after that. Maybe defense companies aren’t your thing, or maybe you’ll think I’m wrong and like this idea more. I do want to give out good ideas, and not just exactly what it is that I am doing currently.
Okay, bye bye now.
My portfolio:
T, COF, UBER, SHEL, DINO, LMT, NOC
*I think it is worth stating that just because I hold a stock doesn’t mean I think it’s a good idea to buy it right now.
*Disclaimer*
You can and will lose money in the stock market. You can lose all of your money. I can and will be wrong. I have been wrong in the past. I have lost money in the past. Investing in stocks is risky and should never be considered safe. Invest at your own risk.